Paper

paper · Growth Funnel

owner Trevor Shih
as of
week of complete
last refresh
definitions metrics.yml v1
data sources
projection

Executive summary · week of

    Watch areas

      00headline

      01funnel

      Where a 28-day cohort thins between signup and paid. The stage that matters is the first agent edit: teams that reach it convert at every step after; teams that don't, never do.
      stage progression, 28-day cohort
      activation rate, 7d
      mcp connect rate, 7d

      02the paid wall

      Whether the 100-call cap converts. Cap-hit → paid within 30 days is the load-bearing number: the cap is the pricing model, so this section is the pricing test.
      cap-hit → paid, 30d
      solid = mature cohorts · dotted = under 30 days, do not read
      cap hits / week
      days from cap to paid, median
      conversions via cap

      03agent engagement

      How deep the agent habit runs, and which paying teams are going quiet. Churn here is silent: the agent stops calling and nobody cancels, so the watchlist is the early warning.
      agent-active teams / week
      paid teams agent-active
      calls per active team
      first-call success rate
      usage decay watchlist · paying teams trending to zero
      agent client at first connect
      which agent ecosystems to be listed in, and to test tool schemas against

      04revenue quality

      Whether growth holds once it lands. NRR decomposed into expansion, contraction, and churn; retention by launch wave, never blended; and the reasons teams leave.
      monthly nrr, decomposed
      expansioncontractionchurnapr → aug, absolute $
      paying-team retention by entry wave
      churn reasons, last 8 weeks
      mrr movements / week
      newexpansioncontractionchurn

      05acquisition loops

      Which loop deserves the next dollar and Stephen's next hour. Judge by paying teams per thousand signups, not volume. The agent-ecosystem loop compounds without either.
      loop efficiency by source, all time · growth is last 4 weeks vs prior 4
      loop output · agent-sourced growth
      agent-sourced share of signupstheir 7d activation
      registries and agent docs are where models look. better docs → fewer failures → more agent-initiated installs that activate.
      agent-led growth loop · what agents fail at → what we document
      last 4 weeks · ranked by failures, weighted toward the round-trip tools · the error log is the docs backlog
      docs shipped → failure rate, 4 wks before vs after
      seed_docs_shipped · one row per doc, hand-maintained

      06organizations

      Companies already paying for two or more Pro teams on one domain: an Organizations deal nobody has offered them. The org-ready table is the outreach queue.
      domain pipeline by stage
      org-ready this week · 2+ paying teams and 10+ paid editors on one domain

      07unit economics

      What the $20 seat keeps after inference and Stripe, and what free costs us. Watch free-tier COGS as a share of revenue: the education tier grows the free base faster than revenue.
      per paid editor / month
      blended gross margin
      free-tier cost, % of revenue
      realized price per paid editor
      list: $20 monthly · $16 annual · gap is the annual mix
      every card resolves to a definition in semantic/metrics.yml and a column in semantic/models.sql
      sources: stripe · posthog · paper mcp server telemetry · cost ledger · seed tables