Where a 28-day cohort thins between signup and paid. The stage that matters is the first agent edit: teams that reach it convert at every step after; teams that don't, never do.
stage progression, 28-day cohort
activation rate, 7d
mcp connect rate, 7d
02the paid wall
Whether the 100-call cap converts. Cap-hit → paid within 30 days is the load-bearing number: the cap is the pricing model, so this section is the pricing test.
cap-hit → paid, 30d
solid = mature cohorts · dotted = under 30 days, do not read
cap hits / week
days from cap to paid, median
conversions via cap
03agent engagement
How deep the agent habit runs, and which paying teams are going quiet. Churn here is silent: the agent stops calling and nobody cancels, so the watchlist is the early warning.
agent-active teams / week
paid teams agent-active
calls per active team
first-call success rate
usage decay watchlist · paying teams trending to zero
agent client at first connect
which agent ecosystems to be listed in, and to test tool schemas against
04revenue quality
Whether growth holds once it lands. NRR decomposed into expansion, contraction, and churn; retention by launch wave, never blended; and the reasons teams leave.
monthly nrr, decomposed
expansioncontractionchurnapr → aug, absolute $
paying-team retention by entry wave
churn reasons, last 8 weeks
mrr movements / week
newexpansioncontractionchurn
05acquisition loops
Which loop deserves the next dollar and Stephen's next hour. Judge by paying teams per thousand signups, not volume. The agent-ecosystem loop compounds without either.
loop efficiency by source, all time · growth is last 4 weeks vs prior 4
loop output · agent-sourced growth
agent-sourced share of signupstheir 7d activation
registries and agent docs are where models look. better docs → fewer failures → more agent-initiated installs that activate.
agent-led growth loop · what agents fail at → what we document
last 4 weeks · ranked by failures, weighted toward the round-trip tools · the error log is the docs backlog
docs shipped → failure rate, 4 wks before vs after
seed_docs_shipped · one row per doc, hand-maintained
06organizations
Companies already paying for two or more Pro teams on one domain: an Organizations deal nobody has offered them. The org-ready table is the outreach queue.
domain pipeline by stage
org-ready this week · 2+ paying teams and 10+ paid editors on one domain
07unit economics
What the $20 seat keeps after inference and Stripe, and what free costs us. Watch free-tier COGS as a share of revenue: the education tier grows the free base faster than revenue.
per paid editor / month
blended gross margin
free-tier cost, % of revenue
realized price per paid editor
list: $20 monthly · $16 annual · gap is the annual mix
every card resolves to a definition in semantic/metrics.yml and a column in semantic/models.sql
sources: stripe · posthog · paper mcp server telemetry · cost ledger · seed tables
How to read this page
the premise, the reading order, and every interaction
The premise
Seats are distribution. Agent usage is the paywall. Free gives every team unlimited editors and 100 MCP calls a week. Pro charges $20 per editor and opens the cap to 1M calls. So the business does not convert on seats; it converts on agent behavior. This page is instrumented accordingly: it counts agent connections, agent edits, tool calls, and the moment a team touches the cap. Almost nothing here counts logins or canvas opens.
Reading order
Summary, WatchThe week in five points and the three things that need an owner. Every number in them is a link to its source.
00 HeadlineThe section title is the year-end pace, computed live: conservative (flat net-new, no compounding) against the $3M target, with the compounding case beside it. Two minutes, in silence, before anyone speaks.
01 FunnelWhere teams fall out between signup and paid, on a cohort old enough for every stage to have happened. The stage map underneath shows which raw event means which stage.
02 The paid wallIs the 100-call cap doing its job? Cap-hit conversion is the load-bearing number of the pricing model.
03 EngagementIs the agent habit deepening, and which paying teams have gone quiet? Leading indicator for both conversion and churn.
04 Revenue qualityDoes the paying base grow on its own, and is the launch wave durable? Momentum and durability are never blended.
05 LoopsWhich acquisition loop gets funded, and what agents fail at, which is what we should document next.
06 OrganizationsWhich companies are already an Organizations deal and don't know it. There is no sales team; this view is the sales team.
07 Unit economicsHow much room the $20 seat has, and what free costs. The customer brings their own agent tokens; image generation is our variable cost.
Interactions
ⓘOpens the card's governed definition: what it is, the formula, the source tables, the SQL it resolves to, the decision it informs, and its caveats. Definitions live in metrics.yml; the file itself opens from the header or the side nav.
Click a cardTraces the number back to its source: one real team followed from the raw event stream through the model tables to the exact cell on the card. Highlighted column is the field the metric reads; highlighted row is the one that contributed.
Click a numberAny bold number in the Executive Summary or Watch Areas traces the same way.
[−] / [+]Collapses the Summary and Watch cards for the meeting.
Hover a chartShows the exact value at that week, every series on the chart, and the total where there is one. Projected points are labelled as forecast.
ProjectionExtends every line chart to Dec 31 as a dotted line past a vertical marker, and adds a chip to the card with the projected value. Level metrics (ARR, paying teams, active teams) compound at the chosen basis: the trailing 8-week rate, or the rate since the post-launch baseline began on Apr 13 (the launch spike itself is excluded, because compounding from it produces nonsense); rates are held flat at their trailing 4-week average, because a rate does not compound. The actual numbers on the cards never change.
escCloses any panel.
Conventions
Mature cohortsRates that need time to happen (activation in 7 days, cap-hit conversion in 30) are shown only for cohorts old enough to measure. Immature cohorts are dotted and must not be read as a trend.
Week statusThe badge next to the week says whether the week is complete or partial. Weekly deltas compare complete weeks only.
WavesTeams are tagged by the launch wave they arrived in (desktop launch, Config, YC review). Retention is reported by wave and never as one blended curve.
BluePaper's accent. New MRR, the cap, and anything the page is pointing at.
EmeraldExpansion and positive deltas.
YellowContraction.
Light redChurn.
The data
Everything here is synthetic, generated to match public figures and the numbers Stephen shared: roughly $46K ARR at the March desktop launch, $1.8M in mid-August, 25% growth in August. Customer logos from paper.design appear as domains; every number attached to them is invented. The pipeline, the semantic layer, and every definition are real and would run unchanged on live Stripe, PostHog, and MCP server data.
Sources
every metric on the page, its raw source, the model it passes through, and the view it resolves to · click a row to trace one team through it · all data in this build is synthetic; the lineage is what would run on live Stripe, PostHog, and MCP telemetry
semantic/metrics.yml
v1 · the governed definitions the dashboard reads from · changes are PRs